Measures consumer sentiment in the Euro-zone nations. The figure is the result of Euro-zone consumer surveys personal finance, the job market, the likelihood of saving and expectations on the economy. High levels of consumer confidence bode well for the economy, indicating consumers are more likely to increase consumption spurring growth and potentially sparking inflation. Conversely, low consumer confidence levels suggest decreased spending. The figure is determined by the difference between positive and negative answers. Therefore a headline above zero indicates positive consumer confidence, while a negative number shows more negative answers

Description

A measure of industry sentiment in the Euro-zone nations. Based on a survey among industrial executives, Industrial Confidence asks for production expectations. Specifically the European Commission asks about recent orders and buildup of inventories. Higher levels of industrial confidence indicate a positive outlook for future business spending and capital investment. Despite the fact that manufacturing accounts for only about a quarter of Euro-zone business, industry accounts for most of the volatility in GDP. Thus developments here have significant impact on overall growth in Europe. The figure is determined by the difference between positive and negative answers. A headline above zero indicates positive industrial confidence, while a negative number shows negative confidence

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USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM)

A healthy Personal Spending figure means that consumers are buying goods and services, fueling the economy and spurring output growth. The report is particularly valued for forecasting inflationary pressures. Taken in excess these high levels of consumption and production may lead to an overall increase in prices. Indeed, the Fed uses a measure of inflation derived from the PCE as their primary gauge of inflation. On the other hand, persistently low Personal Spending may result in decreasing levels of output and an economic downturn. Because income is either spent or saved, Personal Spending (when reported as a percent of income rather than the headline percent change) has an inverse relationship to personal saving. Economists watch the growth of Personal Spending in relation to income and saving to determine if consumers are living beyond their means, which would influence levels of borrowing and future consumption.

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USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY)

A measure of inflation based on changes in personal consumption. Unlike the CPI, which is based on a fixed basket of goods, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Deflator finds the average increase in prices for all domestic personal consumption. PCE Deflator has been shown to be a more comprehensive and consistent gauge of inflation in the US.

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NZD Building Permits (MoM)

The number of new building projects authorized for construction New Zealand . Building Permits, or Building Consents, are issued when a building project has been authorized to begin construction. Since Building Consents serve as one of the earliest signals of expanded housing supply, the report is a leading indicator for the overall housing market. Also, because of the high outlays needed for construction projects Building Permits suggests optimism for corporate or consumer spending. Lastly, housing indicators are popular leading indicators due to the multiplier effect that they have on the rest of the economy. The headline is the percentage change in new consents for the month.

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JPY Household Spending (YoY)

A survey of both wage-earning and non-working households, such as those classified as single-member, unemployed, or retired. The headline figure is the percentage change in average spending per household from the previous year. Increases in household spending are favorable for the Japanese economy because high consumer spending generally leads to higher levels of economic growth. Higher spending is also a sign of consumer optimism, as households confident in their future outlook will spend more. At the same time accelerated growth exerts inflationary pressure, which can lead to interest rate increases in the future.

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JPY Jobless Rate

The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. A lower jobless rate translates into more income-earning workers and greater consumption. Such increased expenditure accelerates economic growth, but can also heighten inflationary pressures. On the other hand, a higher jobless rate tends to precede lower consumer spending and a contracting economy.

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JPY Industrial Production (MoM)

The volume of items produced in Japan 's mining and manufacturing industries. All products, whether sold domestically or abroad, are included in the calculation of industrial production. Industrial production is highly sensitive to the business cycle and can often predict future changes in employment, earnings, and personal income. For these reasons industrial production is considered a reliable leading indicator that conveys information about the overall health of the Japanese economy.

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DailyFX Analysis: Pound Firmer On Improving Consumer Confidence

A survey of the current state of the business sector in Australia . Based on a survey of hundreds of small to large sized companies, the National Australia Bank delivers monthly and more comprehensive quarterly reports from statistical and antidotal data. This comprehensive survey primarily provides insight into the state of the Australian economy and puts forth leading indicators that signal its future direction. Thus the survey's findings, if unexpected, have the power to move markets directly. The National Australia Bank releases both a monthly and quarterly report. The quarterly is more comprehensive, surveying around 1000 small to large non-farm firms. The quarterly provides greater detail on the data as well as provides a short to mid-term outlook of Australia . Because of seasonal volatility and government protections the survey only excludes the farm sector

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DailyFX Analysis: Australia Bank Lending Grows as EU Meeting Pushes Aussie Higher

JPY Construction Orders (YoY)

This report provides information on how many orders were received by construction companies to begin work. The report is compiled into three categories, type of firm (private manufacturer, governmental), region, and type of construction project. Since orders for construction serve as one of the earliest signals of expanded housing supply, the report is a leading indicator for the overall housing market. Also, because of the high outlays needed for construction projects high Construction Orders also suggest optimism for corporate or consumer spending. Lastly, due to the multiplier effect housing has on the economy; building indicators are popular leading indicators for the rest of the economy.

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JPY Small Business Confidence

A measure of small businesses optimism. As small businesses tend to be more sensitive to business cycle developments, Small Business Confidence can precede or confirm larger economic trends. Small businesses are usually the first to falter during a recession and among the first to prosper during an expansion, so larger trends often appear early in the Small Business sector. Furthermore, small and medium enterprises make a large contribution to overall GDP, so a weak climate for small business may mean that the overall health of the economy is in jeopardy. Like any measure of business confidence, a high figure for Small Business Confidence will be positive because confidence is usually accompanied by increased business investment that leads to higher levels of output in the future.

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Measures changes in sales of the German retail sector. Given that consumption makes up a significant portion of German GDP, the Retail Sales figure can act as an indicator of domestic demand. High or rising Retail Sales may spur German consumption, translating into economic growth. However, uncontrolled growth runs the risk of inflationary pressures. Since Germany is a large part of the Euro-zone, German figures may have some impact on the market. The headline figure is expressed in percentage change in the value of sales

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A comprehensive measure of a Canada 's overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP is a significant report in FX Market, serving as one of the primary indicators of a country's overall economic health. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may prompt monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus positive GDP readings are generally bullish for the Canadian Dollar, while negative readings are generally bearish. Most production reports that lead to Canadian GDP are released before the official GDP number. Therefore, actual GDP figures usually confirm expectations. However, an unexpected release can move markets due to the significance of the figure

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The average productivity level of Canadian workers. Labour Productivity is calculated by dividing the gross domestic product (GDP) by the number of hours worked, yielding output per hour, which is the key measure of productivity growth. The availability of better technology and higher levels of education among the workforce are factors commonly attributed to increased productivity. Growth in labour productivity is usually seen as a sign of a healthy economy because higher productivity allows higher output for a fixed population. Rising Labour Productivity can also offset inflationary pressures associated with economic growth and spending. Economic expansion attributed to increased Labour Productivity will not result in inflation, meaning that central banks will not need to increase interest rates during times of high growth. The headline figure is the percentage change in output per hour

Description

Monthly measure of the business conditions based on surveys of purchasing managers across Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Released on the last business day of the reporting month, the report's significance has recently declined, with its only significance being that it precedes the more anticipated ISM report. Subsequently, it is used to predict the ISM report as the Chicago survey retains a high correlation with the broader economic release. Referring to a benchmark of 50, the report is considered to reflect expansion when printing a reading of 50 or higher. Conversely, a reading of 49 and lower would be indicative of contraction

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The number of new dwellings sold in the past month. An increase in home sales suggests a growing housing market which will tends to promote the rest of the economy. New Home Sales confirms trends in housing reports that record earlier stages of construction such as Building Approvals and Construction Work Done and is considered a leading indicator for broader economic developments. The headline figure is the percentage change in housing sales from the previous month

Description

Tracks changes in housing prices in Australia 's eight provincial capital cities: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart, Darwin, and Canberra. The headline number is the weighted average percentage change from the previous quarter. Like any price index, the housing price indexes measure inflationary pressures, in this case specifically from the housing sector. The headline number is the quarterly percentage change in the index

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JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY)

The average amount of pre-tax earnings per regular employee, including overtime pay and bonuses. Though the report does not take into account all sources of household income (accumulated wealth and capital gains from financial assets are omitted), Labor Cash Earnings accurately reflects the spending ability of domestic consumers, one of the driving forces behind economic growth. Because growth in wages fuels higher consumption, rising Labor Cash Earnings generally lead to higher inflation.

Description

Gauge for costs of homes in the United Kingdom . Mortgage data is used to provide a timely measure of the level of prices. House prices give good information current conditions in the housing market. The Index can precurse broader inflationary pressures felt in later more market moving reports should housing price pressures feed into consumer prices

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Tracks trends in the Swiss Manufacturing sector. The Purchasing Manager's Index attracts market attention as a leading indicator for the Swiss output. The figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole. To construct the PMI the Swiss Association of Purchasing and Materials Management each month surveys hundreds of executives on their procurement expectations for the following month. Because the amount of materials ordered by purchasing managers parallels the level of manufacturing production, the PMI is a gauge of production growth. The results are indexed with a centerline of 50; values above 50 indicate expectations of expansion and values below 50 indicate expectations of contraction for the manufacturing sector

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EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing

The Euro-zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) assesses business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Because the manufacturing sector represents nearly a quarter of total Euro-zone GDP, the Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI is both a significant and timely indicator of business conditions and the general health of the economy. Results are quantified in an index in which values above 50 indicate an expected increase of business conditions and values below 50 signal an expected deterioration.

Description

CPI is the key gauge for inflation in the Euro Zone. Inflation, simply put, is a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro, where each Euro buys fewer goods and services due to higher consumer prices. The index tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical household might purchase. When the CPI is high, it indicates that significant inflationary pressures exist in Euro Zone economies. This puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. When CPI comes out lower than expected the ECB is expected to lower interest rates, or keep them lower, to encourage economic growth. As a rule, the Bank adjusts rates in order to keep Europe consumer price inflation in the 0 to 2 percent range.The CPI is also expressed as Core CPI, a similar measure that excludes energy and food in the basket of goods for the reason that items are highly volatile in price and can distort the CPI. Some market participants believe that Core CPI provides a better representation of inflation. The headline figures for the Euro-zone Inflation Index are a monthly and annualized percentage change

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Commentary and Analysis

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2012/02/01/U.S._ISM_Manufacturing_Rises_to_7-Month_High.html
USD ISM Manufacturing

The ISM Manufacturing Survey is valued for its timeliness, and indeed, during waning boom cycles analyst point out that ISM tends to be one of the biggest market moving economic releases. The reasoning lies within the ISM's Prices Paid and Employment subcomponents. These components reflect sentiment towards inflation and labor conditions - two of the market's most significant health indicators. Given that the ISM's timeliness, the information gleaned from such components precedes other market data (like Non-Farm Payrolls or CPI), making the ISM a significant indicator. The headline figure is expressed as a diffusion index based on survey responses. For each category (production, new orders etc.), the index is calculated by adding the percentage of executive responding "higher" with half the percentage of "no change" responses, and subtracting the percentage of "lower" responses. The ISM manufacturing indicator is the aggregate of the results for all categories.

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JPY Monetary Base (YoY)

Currency supplied by the Bank of Japan. The Monetary Base includes all banknotes and coins in circulation plus all currency held as deposits by the Bank of Japan. As an official measure of the Japanese money supply, the Monetary Base will show the immediate impacts of monetary policy actions and can give an indication into the future direction of inflation. An expansion in the monetary base is generally inflationary while a decline will likely have the opposite effect.

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The number of domestic building permits granted for the month. Strong growth in new approvals and permits indicates a growing housing market. Because real estate generally leads economic developments - housing tends to thrive at the start of booms and wane at the onset of recession - the figure can be used with others to forecast future growth in the economy as a whole. For this reason Business Approvals is one of eight components used to construct the Conference Board Leading Index, a widely used index to forecast Australia 's economic course. A strong housing market also tends to lead consumer spending. The headline number is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in new building approvals from the previous month

Description

The trade balance figure is simply the difference between the amount of export and imports of Australian goods and services for the reported month with Australia and other foreign trade partners. Subsequently, when exports are greater than imports, or positive net exports, a trade surplus is created. However, when imports are greater than exports, a deficit is created. Simply put, here, there is more money leaving the country than actually coming in. As a result, the report is taken into heavy consideration as it indicates flow of goods and services and stand as one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payments report. There are a number of factors that work to diminish the market impact of Australian Trade Balance. The report is not very timely, released nearly a month after the reporting period. In addition, developments in many of the figure's components are usually well anticipated. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month, any significant changes in the Trade Balance should plausibly have been already felt during the month and not during the release of data. Despite these considerations, the Trade Balance is essential to forecasting long term trends in foreign exchange rates and has historically been one of the more important reports out of Australia. The Trade Balance is reported in headlines seasonally adjusted, usually in millions of AUD. Technical Note: More specifically, Trade Balance is the aggregate of two separate balances: visible and invisible trade balance. Visible trade covers physical goods where invisible trade covers intangibles like services.

Description

A monthly gauge of construction sector activity. The CIPS PMI asks executives in the construction sector about the state of business and the current level of purchasing. These managers are tasked with gauging future construction demand, and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the construction sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole. The PMI is presented as an index with a value between 1-100

Description

Measures changes in the selling prices of goods and services used by Euro-zone producers. Because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices, the PPI is an early indicator of inflation. A higher PPI, especially when combined with high figures for other measures of inflation, will make the European Central Bank more inclined to raise interest rates. A low or falling PPI is indicative of declining prices, and may suggest an economic slowdown. The Index headline is expressed as a month over month or annualized percentage change. Note: The Euro-zone PPI excludes construction industry because it is vulnerable to seasonal price volatility that can distort index results

Description

Measures changes in the actual dollar cost firms pay for employees to make a uniform output. Since labor costs make up such a sizeable portion of business' production costs, trends in this figure are significant to wage pressures. High or rising labor costs are often passed to consumers in higher final prices, causing inflation. As a result, rising Unit Labor Costs often act as an early indicator of inflation, making it the key indicator in the Productivity and Costs report. The figure is reported in headlines as a percentage change from previous quarters

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Commentary and Analysis

Tracks monthly developments in the Australian services sector, condensing data into an overall boom or bust index. The composite index is based on the surveys for sales, new orders, employment, inventories and deliveries, compiled by American International Group. The AIG Performance of Service Index excludes industrial manufacturing sectors that tend to be volatile and seasonal, giving a clean picture of Australia's service sector that accounts for a majority of Aussie GDP. The headline number uses a 50 baseline, where above 50 signifies growth, while a number below 50 shows a contraction in the services sector

Description

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EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services

Gauge for the overall performance of the German service sector. The Services PMI interviews German executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the German service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. For this reason Services PMI usually causes little market movement. The survey results are quantified and presented as an index on a 1-100 scale. The headline figure is the percentage change in the index.

Description

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services

The Euro-zone Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) assesses business conditions in the services sector. The figure is determined based on monthly surveys of executives in Germany , France , Ireland , Italy and Spain . Combined, these countries account for roughly four fifths of total service sector activity in the Euro-zone. Since services account for two thirds of total Euro-zone GDP, the Services PMI is both a significant and timely indicator of the health of the economy. Higher Service PMI levels suggest upward future trends in output and employment of the industry.

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GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services

Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand, and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the service sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole.

Description

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY)

The total value of goods and services sold each month at retail outlets. The report acts as a gauge of consumption and consumer confidence. An increasing number of sales signal consumer confidence and economic growth, which would fuel the Euro-zone economy. However, higher consumption also leads to inflationary pressures, which results in economic instability. The headline is the monthly percentage change in retail sales.

Description

The net change in the number of people employed in Canada . Increases in employment are generally accompanied by higher consumption and expenditure levels. At the same time, higher employment, consumption and expenditures may lead to heightened inflationary pressures that encourage central banks to tighten monetary policy. If the Bank of Canada were to raise interest rates, it would put upward pressure on the Canadian dollar. Because this is the main employment report in Canada it tends to have significant impact on the market. The headline figure is the change in employment in thousands

Description

Will Canadian employment recover despite a weaker US economy? Join Currency Analyst David Song for a LIVE discussion HERE during the release!

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USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls

Monthly change in employment excluding the farming sector. Non-farm payrolls is the most closely watched indicator in the Employment Situation, considered the most comprehensive measure of job creation in the US. Such a distinction makes the NFP figure highly significant, given the importance of labor to the US economy. Specifically, political pressures come into play, as the Fed is responsible for keeping employment in a healthy range and utilizes interest rate changes to do so. A surge in new Non-farm Payrolls suggests rising employment and potential inflation pressures, which the Fed often counters with rate increases. On the other hand, a consistent decline in Non-farm Employment suggests a slowing economy, which makes a decline in rates more likely.

Description

Dollar volume of new orders, shipments, unfilled orders and inventories as reported by domestic manufacturers. Factor Orders is not a widely watched economic release. The Advance Release on Durable Goods Activity reported one week earlier tends grab more market attention, given that durable goods make up more than half of factory orders. Factor Orders does provide a comprehensive look at the manufacturing sector. Specifically, the New Orders figure can act as a gauge of demand across industries while Shipments are indicative of supply. The Unfilled Orders and Inventory figures reconcile the balance between New Orders and Shipments; high Shipments are indicative of an excess of demand relative to supply, high Inventories signal an excess of supply over demand. Figures are reported in billions of dollars and also in percent change from the previous month

Description

A monthly estimate of inflation in the Australian economy. The report replicates the methodology used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics to calculate quarterly CPI, striving to correspond closely with official government numbers. The figure is important because it acts as a timelier indicator of inflation, coming out monthly instead of the quarterly CPI figures. Released one day before interest rate decisions are made, the figure may influence RBA considerations for rate hikes or reductions. As with any gauge of inflation in Australia , a high value in the figure is bullish for the Australian dollar, since real inflationary pressures are usually met by the Reserve Bank of Australia with bullish rate hikes. The headline figure is the month-over-month or annualized inflation rate

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